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2008 April

April 30th, 2008 @ 7:02 am by Johan Kriek

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The FED will release their rate decision at 18:15pm GMT today and consensus calls for a 25bp cut with possible comments about “no more further cuts and even raising rates in 2009”

Should they cut rates and stipulate a relative hawkish tone, the greenback can strengthen alot. So be warned!

Herewith the studies for today.

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April 30th, 2008 @ 4:01 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Wed, 30th of April, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After a minor gain against Dollar on Monday, yesterday the Euro continued it’s weakness. It looks like EURUSD is making a test to 1.5341 zone. My model is short, targeting 1.5480 area. Immediate resistance seen at 1.5620. CCI in oversold area.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5517
  • S2= 1.5469
  • S3= 1.5398
  • R1= 1.5636
  • R2= 1.5707
  • R3= 1.5755

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling suffered huge losses against Dollar yesterday. GBPUSD failed to stay above 1.9860, bottomed at 1.9665 and closed at 1.9696. My model is short, targeting 1.9584. Immediate resistance at 1.9750. CCI about to cross – 100 line down.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9603
  • S2= 1.9510
  • S3= 1.9356
  • R1= 1.9850
  • R2= 2.0004
  • R3= 2.0097

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY attempted to go lower yesterday, bottomed at 103.20, but further downside move was rejected and the pair closed at 104.07. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support at 103.75. Initial support at 104.50.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.39
  • S2= 102.71
  • S3= 102.23
  • R1= 104.55
  • R2= 105.03
  • R3= 105.71

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF is chasing 1.0425-30 area. (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 1.0916 to 0.9636). A break out upside would trigger further bullish move toward 1.0650 area. CCI about to cross 100 line down, so we also have downside risk. Immediate support seen at 1.0280. Initial resistance at 1.0425-30.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0329
  • S2= 1.0280
  • S3= 1.0246
  • R1= 1.0412
  • R2= 1.0446
  • R3= 1.0495
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April 29th, 2008 @ 3:47 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Tue, 29th of April, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Euro had a minor recovery against Dollar yesterday. Seems like the pair need some fundamental factors to make a significant moves this week. My model remains mixed with downside bias. Immediate support still at 1.5580. Initial resistance also still at 1.5730. I am expecting ranging market today.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5599
  • S2= 1.5545
  • S3= 1.5498
  • R1= 1.5700
  • R2= 1.5747
  • R3= 1.5801

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling continued stronger against Greenback yesterday, but in a slower pace. The GBPUSD need to stay above 1.9860 area to keep the short term bullish outlook intact. My model remains long. Initial resistance seen at 1.9950.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9803
  • S2= 1.9700
  • S3= 1.9619
  • R1= 1.9987
  • R2= 2.0068
  • R3= 2.0171

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY showed no significant move yesterday. The Japanese Yen made a little recovery against Dollar. My model is mixed with downside bias since CCI already in overbought area and just cross 100 line down on the daily chart. Immediate support at 103.90 . Initial resistance at 104.75.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.90
  • S2= 103.60
  • S3= 103.15
  • R1= 104.65
  • R2= 105.10
  • R3= 105.40

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF also seems to need some fundamental factors this week to make important technical moves. My model is mixed with downside bias since CCI already in overbought area on daily chart. Immediate support at 1.0305. Initial resistance at 1.0430

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0303
  • S2= 1.0267
  • S3= 1.0236
  • R1= 1.0370
  • R2= 1.0401
  • R3= 1.0437
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April 28th, 2008 @ 4:21 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Mon, 28th of April, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Euro continue to suffer sharp losses against Dollar since 23/04/2008. Although the short term outlook is bearish for EURUSD, I think the bullish long term outlook can not be said over. Immediate support at 1.5580. Initial resistance at 1.5730. CCI in oversold area on the daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5553
  • S2= 1.5477
  • S3= 1.5400
  • R1= 1.5706
  • R2= 1.5783
  • R3= 1.5859

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling recovered it’s losses against Greenback on Friday, forced my model to go long since the pair found good support on the daily chart trend line. Immediate support at 1.9808 followed by 1.9750. Initial resistance seen at 1.9870 area. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9728
  • S2= 1.9595
  • S3= 1.9515
  • R1= 1.9941
  • R2= 2.0021
  • R3= 2.0154

USDJPY Outlook
My technical indicators show that the current short/medium term bullish outlook has big probability to continue. Immediate support at 104.30. Initial resistance at 105.25. However, CCI already in overbought area so minor downside correction might happen today.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.94
  • S2= 103.46
  • S3= 103.03
  • R1= 104.85
  • R2= 105.28
  • R3= 105.76

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF is in convincing short term bullish momentum. Friday, the pair topped at 1.0430, right at the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement from 1.0916 to 0.9636. But further upside movement seems to be limited for now. Eyes on co-relation with EURUSD. Immediate support at 1.0276 followed by 1.0127. Initial resistance at 1.0430.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0284
  • S2= 1.0227
  • S3= 1.0154
  • R1= 1.0414
  • R2= 1.0487
  • R3= 1.0544
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April 25th, 2008 @ 3:04 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Fri, 25th of April, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the EURUSD continued a sharp sell off after failed to stay above 1.6000 area. The pair bottomed at 1.5638. My short term model is short, but we might see a choppy market today since the pair seem to be oversold now. Yesterday’s low, 1.5638 seems to be an important support. Initial resistance at 1.5775.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5582
  • S2= 1.5484
  • S3= 1.5331
  • R1= 1.5833
  • R2= 1.5986
  • R3= 1.6084

GBPUSD Outlook
The Greenback also continued it’s stronger movement against Sterling yesterday. The pair broke the key level at 1.9740 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 1.9336 to 2.0397) and bottomed at 1.9685. My model is short, targeting 1.9630 area. Immediate resistance at 1.9795.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9665
  • S2= 1.9610
  • S3= 1.9535
  • R1= 1.9795
  • R2= 1.9870
  • R3= 1.9925

USDJPY Outlook
The Dollar made another convincing stronger move against the Japanese Yen yesterday. My model is long targeting 105.00 area. CCI already in overbought area so watch out for minor downside pullback. Immediate support seen at 103.80 followed by 103.40.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 103.56
  • S2= 102.82
  • S3= 102.33
  • R1= 104.79
  • R2= 105.28
  • R3= 106.02

USDCHF Outlook
Following the Euro, Swiss Franc was traded weaker against Dollar yesterday. The USDCHF broke out from ranging market (1.0200 0.9984), topped at 1.0383. My model is mixed with upside bias. CCI already in overbought area, so we might see a downside minor pullback or a choppy market today.  Immediate support at 1.0290 followed by 1.0230. Initial resistance at 1.0420.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0204
  • S2= 1.0057
  • S3= 0.9968
  • R1= 1.0440
  • R2= 1.0529
  • R3= 1.0676

Have a nice week end!

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April 24th, 2008 @ 12:06 pm by Johan Kriek

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UK Retail sales fell 0.4% – The first decline in three months. This sparked a very volatile aftermath in the price of Sterling but it soon stabilised. Due to the deteriorating housing market we also expect a possible rate cut from the BoE if the recent liquidity infusion does not stabilise the market

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone. Price is still finding support at the violated current trend resistance line (blue line) but we can’t see any new highs…Therefore we have to wait for either a bearish trending market rhythm or for new highs to be taken out – especially the 1.9815 high

The EUR dived sharply due to the weaker than expected IFO data. Consensus was for 104.3 but the actual figure came out at 102.4

Now the top at 1.6020 is really starting to look like a major turning point. Nevertheless, we are bearish on this one anyway

EUR/USD – Bearish Trading Condition. The Wedge has been violated to the downside as anticipated but keep note of 1.5720 as it might prove a significant support.

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April 24th, 2008 @ 3:28 am by Setyo Wibowo

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Thu, 24th of April, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The market rejected EURUSD attempt to go higher yesterday. The Euro suffered big losses, bottomed at 1.5859 and closed at 1.5882. This fact force my short term model to mixed with downside bias. As long as the pair stay above 1.5780, we might see another attempt to 1.6250 area. If not, EURUSD might corrected further to 1.5640 area. Immediate support at 1.5830

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.5828
  • S2= 1.5774
  • S3= 1.5689
  • R1= 1.5967
  • R2= 1.6052
  • R3= 1.6106

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling also suffered big losses against Dollar yesterday. Like EURUSD, GBPUSD is also technically a mess. My model is mixed. Immediate support and key level seen at 1.9740. A break lower from that level could trigger further downside risk.  Initial resistance at 1.9867.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.9716
  • S2= 1.9643
  • S3= 1.9515
  • R1= 1.9917
  • R2= 2.0045
  • R3= 2.0118

USDJPY Outlook
The Dollar recovered against Japanese Yen yesterday. This keep my bullish medium term intact for USDJPY. My model goes long. Immediate support at 103.35 followed by 102.80. Initial resistance seen at 104.00.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 102.87
  • S2= 102.29
  • S3= 101.84
  • R1= 103.90
  • R2= 104.35
  • R3= 104.93

USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc was traded weaker against Dollar yesterday. CCI just cross 100 line up on daily chart, force my model to mixed with upside bias. Eyes on co-relation with EURUSD. Key level is 1.0200 area. Immediate support at 1.0130.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

  • S1= 1.0058
  • S2= 0.9964
  • S3= 0.9908
  • R1= 1.0208
  • R2= 1.0264
  • R3= 1.0358
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April 23rd, 2008 @ 8:51 am by Johan Kriek

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EUR/USD – NO Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Due to the significance of the rising wedge seen on the EUR, we would wait for a possible failure (price MUST move above 1.6020) of the pattern before we would continue trading this one bullish.

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