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2008 February

February 27th, 2008 @ 10:28 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi again everybody!

London open today found the market in great turmoil, after a rally in almost all dollar pairs sent the greenback to record lows. The USD is now trading around 1.5080 versus the EUR and above 1.99 vs. the GBP.  We were not in the room to catch the moves but the aftermath is equally interesting.

The pairs we mostly focused on are USDJPY, EURCHF and USDCAD, all of which present nice bearish opportunities with EW confirmations short. We are still waiting for USDJPY and USDCAD to pull back before we sell, but we are already short on EURCHF based on a EW setup in mid-term:SELL from 1.6083, stop at 1.6135 ad target down at 1.5750. We will manage the trade if it goes our way and adjust stop and target when this seems appropriate.

EURUSD and GBPUSD are still in bullish motion and there is no sign yet that this is over, however we anticipate a pause in the rally in the 1.51 area / 2.0020.

Happy trading!

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February 26th, 2008 @ 8:03 pm by Vito Henjoto

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Dollar falls against all major after disappointing data.

US Consumer Confidence printed 75.0 against the forecast of a fall to 82.0, Which Triggered a rally In All the Majors.

With EUR/USD finally hits the elusive 1.5000 level, and AUD/USD back above 0.9300.
PPI m/m printed 1.0% above expectations of 0.4%, And Core PPI printed 0.4% above expectations of 0.2%.

A drop in Consumer Confidence, which indicates a Slow Growth in the Economy, together with Above expectations PPI which means a Higher Inflation sign, only complicates matter for FOMC in terms of their Interest Rate Decision Making.

Forget Recession, US Economy is entering a Stagflation Economy. It will be interesting to see what move FOMC will take. Will they ease The interest rate again to boost growth, like what most People are assuming right now. Or hold rates as it is to deter any possible rise in inflation? Read the rest of this entry »

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February 26th, 2008 @ 3:24 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everybody!

We started the London session today with a look at the AUDUSD, which at the time was in a minor bearish correction but still strongly supported for upmoves, targets @0.9270, 0.9334. At the time of this writing the first target was reached, waiting to see the reaction to the 2nd target.

EURUSD and GBPUSD looked overbought, possibility of consolidation down however the bears have not yet stepped in with serious momentum. Charts look like forming a narrowing range which at the moment points down, with a more bullish bias for GBPUSD (it seems to have started rallies across the board).

USDJPY and GBPJPY both looked bullish, with USDJPY confirming earlier and giving a stable rally on overall yen weakness, which we expect to continue.

However, the big winner of the day remains the CAD, which managed to rally against all the majors, especially agains the JPY and EUR. USDCAD looks like in the first stage of a much larger leg down, a move that we are currently focusing on.

Happy trading!

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February 25th, 2008 @ 4:10 pm by Vito Henjoto

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Carry Trade Back in Play?
With JPY weakening since the past 2 weeks, Fear of US Recession does not seem to dampened the appetite for Carry Trade.
With AUD/JPY Leading the race.Our Favorite Comm dollar has been on a rampage the past month, This is mainly attributed to the High risk of Inflation The Australian Economy is facing. Read the rest of this entry »

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February 22nd, 2008 @ 11:09 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hello again everybody,

We started the London session today with a look at the Yen pairs, which are all close to confirming bearish setups mid-term – by the time of this writing there has not been a clear breach of the support lines yet.

EURUSD reached up to 1.4862 and seems to be losing momentum, our analysis shows the possibility of a retracement back to 1.4780 and lower based on the wide range we can observe on the daily charts.

GBPUSD confirmed a bullish mid-term outlook and completed a bullish EW on hourly charts, which is why we are bearish on it down to 1.9560 (200MA on 1h and 38.2 fib of the entire wave up) but bullish starting with that level, as a larger formation is possibly starting to unfold towards 2.0200 during the following weeks.

Have a great weekend!

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February 21st, 2008 @ 10:11 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hello again everyone!

Today the EW picture was rather unclear, therefore we focused on mid-term setups awaiting better opportunities.

GBPUSD and GBPJPY benefited from a good fundamental support and rallied, GBP remains supported short-term with possibility of retracement at the end of NY session. We took a short based on EW, short-term trade: SELL@1.9586, stop@1.9630, target 1.9523.

Yen-based pairs are apparently continuing the short-term retracement up, we are looking for confirmations to buy USDJPY and GBPJPY during the next sessions.

Happy trading everybody!

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February 15th, 2008 @ 7:00 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Hi everybody!

Today the AUDUSD presented an interesting bullish opportunity, we got a confirmation for a long and we are now looking for a buy@0.9050-0.9065 – let’s see if this trade comes into play later today.

Also, GBPJPY looks bearish short-term, with a possible target at 211-210.80 possibly supporting a new rally up with 214 as a main target (2 sets of double tops in the area).

USDCAD continues to look bearish, with repeated tests down at 0.9965 creating a downward slope favorable to the bears – but momentum still expected to build up to sustain a short trade. In standby for now…

Happy trading!

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February 13th, 2008 @ 10:28 am by Mihai Marinescu

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Greetings everybody! A lot of interaction and good setups in the LTR today, overall many opportunities to look at.

We started with a look at the USDCAD, where since yesterday we’ve been waiting for a bearish signal (a TD break on 4h charts) – finally the TD resisted and we are still in consolidation at the time of this writing.

The AUDUSD presented a possible aggressive opportunity to buy for some large targets, but we decided to wait for the conservative entry (proved to be a good decision later, when Aussie dipped towards our projected stops) .

Today we focused our attention on the JPY pairs and started the day with a bullish perspective on all three majors – USDJPY, EURJPY, GBBJPY, an outlook that was later confirmed through different technical setups: Elliott Wave formations on several levels, divergence, trendlines, and finally a nice triangle on USDJPY that was broken while we were observing the pair.

We managed to jump right in on a USDJPY long @107.54, with a mid-term target of 109.18 and with a protective stop @106.95. The stop was later raised to breakeven during the NY session, therefore we are now enjoying a risk-free ride (at the time of this writing our trade has reached +70 pips, and counting) .
Will stay in the trade and possibly add to the position at a pullback towards 107.95.

Happy trading and see you tomorrow morning!

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