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2007 August

August 31st, 2007 @ 10:24 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 31, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

This is the last day in the trading week, and the last day of August. Some interesting US and CAD news in effect today.

GBP/USD has been in an uptrend channel for a long while now. We have gone over the 50% fib level of the last big daily downward retracement, at around 2.0150. The good thing about this is that what we anticipated yesterday in regards to future price action has come into effect. We were anticipating a move at 2.0033, and the validity of our trendline and its 61.8 fib fan were validated at around 2.0075.

We are looking at another retest of the lower support channels at 2.0100 and the main support level at 2.0094. There is expected big retracement, because if you look at the support channels, they have been holding thus far, but on the upper end, we have two highs forming a sort of double top, though the resulting downwards move was not that big. The resistance line is squeezing the price into a Triangle Formation in the making. We anticipate a breakout of this triangle, and looking for a downmove, because the stochastics are currently very overbought.

USD/JPY on the daily charts failed to breach the 116.66 level, and again was rejected and taken down. The price has been living in the downleg initiated some time ago. The price has broken the channel connecting the lows to the downside, though it has been rejected at the lower support boundary of the channel, as well as coinciding with the 200ma on the 1h chart. The pair is still looking bearish, though we are not taking any short positions until we see a close right below a specific target level, and until the stochastics are curling down.

We had a similar situation yesterday, and do need a confirmed 4h close below these levels so that we could go Short with a very tight stop.

EUR/USD has a similar situation to the GBP/USD, except an even more rigid ceiling at the 1.3680 level, which is the previous historic high. It has given us 5 consecutive days of failure at this level. Right now the prices are still below this level, and the very large spike indicates we have very heavy selling orders overwhelming the area. The conclusion we are reaching is – we are looking for another retracement to the downside, as we have 5 bars in a row failing to breach this level, and if it closes below, it will be the 6th day in a row. Prices are getting rejected by the 88.6 fib fan levels of the downwards fall. We want to know where prices will start trading next week, so we will be looking for Longs only of the 61.8 retracement survives. Otherwise we will be looking for Shorts.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vBS6Qdb20g[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex training, forex education, forex videos[/tags]

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August 31st, 2007 @ 2:31 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Yesterday price action formed a doji on the daily charts, after it opened near the 1.3680 resistance line, the pair fell through and got as low 1.3590 in intraday trading but in the second part of the day it climbed back up; so far today we are trading at the same levels as yesterday’s just below the 1.3680. Everyone seems to be waiting for some additional information that will help them make an informed decision direction wise. As for the technical levels, we have to look at the same range we had all this week with lows at 1.3560/70 and highs at 1.3680. A move above 1.3680 will get us very close to the 1.3840/50 YTD highs and who knows if the move has enough steam we could even see new highs being established. Conversely a move below 1.3600 and towards the 1.3560 lows will put bears in control and most likely they will push the pair lower down to the already tested 1.3460 and even lower to 1.3365.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3750 – round number
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

  • 1.3550 – June 5th High
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3260 – June 13th Low

Read the rest of this entry »

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August 30th, 2007 @ 8:35 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 30, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

Although it has been the last days of August, a very slow time for the market in general, we had an interesting day with several nice moves on GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

GBP/USD was left yesterday with an uptrend on the pair, and going to the daily chart, we were anticipating some downmove before a bullish reversal would take place. Plotting two fib projections -a Fibonacci Fan and Fibonacci Retracement, we expected the price to retest the 38.2 level at around 2.0032, which we saw as a good entry point for a Long trade. We entered this trade after receiving confirmation. As we mentioned yesterday, it would be imperative that prices go down to test the 2.0033 level, and today it reached 2.0042 at its lowest point, which created a spike indicating some very good support at this level, which corresponds to the 61.8 level of the fib fan, and 38.2 level of the fib retracement. It is also resting upon the rising uptrend line connecting the previous lows.

We went into this trade at 2.0077 with a 3 lot trade. Two of the lots were closed off at the 2.0122 level, upon the breach of the 50% fib level. With an hourly close right above, we moved our stop for the 3rd lot to 2.0120 where it corresponds to the invalidation area of the upmove – if the price gets to reach this point, then the trendline becomes invalid, and we lock in 50 pips or so of profit, in addition to the previous 2 lots. All in all a very good trade.

On GBP/JPY, we were anticipating a nice upmove, though daily fib fans suggest we are being held at the price’s current level of 233.96, and upon the failure to breach the fib fan level, we initated a short position at 233.64. The pair is now trading at 233.22. If we have a close below the 76.4 fib level, we have a greater chance of catching further pips on the move down.

We follow a very simple straetgy on the GBP/JPYDivergence. As we did in yesterday’s recap, we are once again anticipating a nice Bullish Divergence on the 5 minute charts, with the stochastics forming a lower low, and price forming a higher low.  The reversal will likely take place in the oversold area, and we will flatten our Short position at that level, and initiate a new Long trade.

PS: Be sure to join us for tomorrow’s FREE open session, on Friday, August 31! Click here to learn more.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvQjL4l4hYM[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex training, forex education, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 30th, 2007 @ 4:42 am by Bogdan Parascanu

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EUR/USD Technical View

Wednesday’s trading session managed to reinforce both the low and the high of the trading range we mentioned in our previous commentaries, with the small adjustment that the low of the range is now situated in the 1.3560/70 instead of the 1.3600 round number. After taking out Tuesday’s low the pair shot right back up to retest the 1.3680 and so far this resistance level has not been breached and the pair slipped lower. WE are basically in the same situation we were at the start of the week, and chances are the markets are waiting for some additional information before making a decisive move; a dash above 1.3680 will get us very close to the 1.3840/50 YTD highs and who knows if the move has enough steam we could even see new highs being established. Conversely a move below 1.3600 and towards the 1.3560 lows will put bears in control and most likely they will push the pair lower down to the already tested 1.3460 and even lower to 1.3365.

Resistance Levels

  • 1.3850 – July 24th High
  • 1.3750 – round number
  • 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

  • 1.3550 – June 5th High
  • 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
  • 1.3365 – December 3rd High
  • 1.3260 – June 13th Low

Read the rest of this entry »

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August 29th, 2007 @ 9:32 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 29, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

Today we are continuing observing yesterday’s setups and trades, which are developing and hopefully in our direction.

On the GBP/USD weekly charts, we have a loud and clear trendline taking the prices above the break at the 1.9845 level, and a retest of the lowermost boundary of the channel. That is where we entered our Long, as anticipated from yesterday. In the recap we mentioned going Long around the 2.0036 on a clear view of a break of that level. This level corresponds to the 38.2 level of the retracement of the previous High from 2.0646 to the Low of 1.9652. So a close above the 38.2 level means we are safe inside our upmoving channel and are in for some nice profit. Our first target is 2.0365. That is more than 250 pips of potential profit.

In these conditions we can have a stop loss that is very tight and protect our account. Looking at the 4h chart for a confirmation, we see that the 50% fib level is just a few tens of pips south of our position. We are looking for a Long at the 4h candle close around where it is now, close to 2.0176, because that would mean we are closing above the 50% level while supported. We are looking at stochastics, and as mentioned yesterday, the close of these levels on the 4h basis would suggest a nice move towards the upside. It is always good practice to look at stochastics – we had a previous close at the same level in the recent past, but at the time stochastics were in the overbought area, and we did not take that Long position. However, now the same level is being approached with stochastics in a more comfortable bullish region.

On EUR/USD weekly charts, a similar uptrend is taking place, with a tight channel governing price action. One thing we would like to highlight is that we have a Bearish Divergence on the weekly chart, so we don’t expect much movement to the upside. This Bearish Divergence translates into the harsh downmove that took place. But now its reversing and going in the opposite direction. We are anticipating that we have one of 2 scenarios taking place – another stall on the same high, or we are going to enter into a totally new era.

Most of us here are daytraders so we look at intraday trades. One thing we find on Daily charts is that the highs are getting lower – however thats not our main concern. What we also saw is a clear breach of the resistance fan on 4h, about the 88.6 level, previously tested two days ago, and had some retracements. We have the 76.4 level giving us resistance early in the fan, and then turning to support the price. The support was matched with a south-bound stochastic, so we decided to wait for the prices to develop and get a good entry. People who went long at this position got some good action. But the Long trade from yesterday’s recap was placed around 1.3593, with a stop at 1.3560, which was 1 or 2 pips from being hit, but was a very precise stop and prices are now rallying and reaching as high as 1.3672.

On the USD/JPY daily charts, we have a very significant level around around 115.13 which has been breached. Taking a deeper look into the 4h charts we see the price action is still in the downleg of the movement. Yesterday we took a short trade around 114.80, but took our profit a bit early around the 114.13 level, as we could anticipate some support on the channel boundary, and sometimes this support can materialize by jumping back upon touching the channel barrier. We prefer to put our targets and stops with some threshold and adjustment in such cases. The price got supported at the lower part of the channel and then the median channel, and we have the stochastics in the oversold area and pointing north. Our first resistance is anticipated around 116.90. The second resistance level is about 100 more pops north, at 117.95.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRw3ELF-haE[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex training, forex education, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 29th, 2007 @ 2:52 am by Bogdan Parascanu

Click here to read the full article.

EUR/USD Technical View

Yesterday’s trading session marked another test of the 1.3680 resistance line before a rather sharp move down, a move that managed to bring the pair under the 1.3600 round number where we are currently trading. So far today we see that the pair has moves a little bit higher than where it opened but chances are its only a retest of the breached 1.3600 level before continuing the move south, if the momentum remains in place we should pay attention to the 1.3550 high established on June 5th as the closest support level followed lower down by the already tested 1.3460 and even lower by the 1.3365. Conversely a move back above 1.3600 will just bring us back to the situation we were at the beginning of the week when the pair could move either way, with traders awaiting for some fundamental news to help with deciding about a direction. As far as the possibility of a long we have the 1.3680 level as a strong resistance level and also a significant bullish target.

Resistance Levels

* 1.3850 – July 24th High
* 1.3750 – round number
* 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

* 1.3550 – June 5th High
* 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
* 1.3365 – December 3rd High
* 1.3260 – June 13th Low

Read the rest of this entry »

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August 28th, 2007 @ 10:07 pm by Eugene Teplitsky

Click here to read the full article.

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 28, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

A somewhat slow day today, though a few significant moves to discuss as well.

On the GBP/USD‘s daily perspective, a trendline connecting the previous daily high has been breached on the downside. Eventually it will form some sort of resistance on the way back. The level of the 2.0096 support has come into play as a resistance level. As this view gets crystalized, we are looking at the market suspiciously, because after this rebound and entrance of the upper trendline and its respective lower resistance channel, we anticipated some more upmove. However, with these lows getting into play, we are anticipating some more downmoves to test the support line which is the lowermost support boundary of the uptrend channel.

From a longer term perspective, you find that this trendline has been tested a few times before, and each time it has prompted a large upmove. After the most recent test of this trendline, the move has not taken place yet. We are anticipating a Long position around the 2.0003 level, as this is the 38.2 level of the full Fibonacci retracement, and the trendline connecting the physical lows of that upmove that is breaking the downleg currently taking place. If the price reaches the 2.0003 level trendline, we have the potential for a very good trade for around 100 or 200 pips target with only 30 pips of loss.

EUR/USD on the weekly charts indicate a similar situation to the GBP/USD. A nice upmove that was temporarily breached to the lower side, however we cannot call this a breach, as the price has just tested the trendline level, and closed right above. The next weekly candle opened below, with a good strong close right above. Going down to the daily chart, the 100% previous high fib level has given some resistance, causing prices to go down, and we have another fib fan that is giving resistance. All this would eventually give us some pullback, then a resumption of the upwards move.

GBP/JPY is being traded exclusively on the 5 min chart today. The wild moves that this pair exhibits can qickly wipe out an account.  We are trading on the shorter timeframes, and obtaining longer term views from the daily and 4 hour charts, but when looking for entries, we look at 5 min exclusively, looking at divergence setups where possible. Regardless of the fact that the market was quiet today, we have been able to successfully trade this pair on the shorter timeframe.

USD/CAD being traded as usual on the 4 hour and daily timeframes. Looking at the 4 hour charts, we have some upmove that has been breached to the downside, with the prices subscribing to the downleg since 3 days ago. By yesterday, the prices found support at the 1.0473 level, and rallied higher, as anticipated in the Live Trading Room session of 2 days ago. We need to see where the price will go next, but a rejection at the fib level at 1.0640 would trigger a Short position, and target again the support at 1.0473.

Enjoy the video and see you next time at our Live Forex Trading Room!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hon_AO59gtk[/youtube]

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade – You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex training, forex education, forex videos[/tags]

Click here to read the full article.

August 28th, 2007 @ 3:22 am by Bogdan Parascanu

Click here to read the full article.

EUR/USD Technical View

Yesterday we saw a clear rejection from the 1.3680 resistance level, the pair just couldn’t muster the energy to break above and is started to lose some ground, this was the case with most US dollar pairs where the US bill realized some gains. Now we are trading inside the 1.3600/1.3680 area and we’ll need to wait and see which way the pair will break out, so far in todays trading hours the low is 1.3615 but after that Euro regain a few points and now we are trading just in the middle of that range. Looking at the possibility of a short if 1.3600 will break, than we have to be aware of support levels, 1.3550 established on June 5th is the closest on followed lower down by the already tested 1.3460 and even lower by the 1.3365. Conversely a move above 1.36800 we’ll get us closer to the 1.3750 area as intermediary resistance before the 1.3840/50 YTD highs which at the moment represents the most important bullish target and resistance level around.

Resistance Levels

* 1.3850 – July 24th High
* 1.3750 – round number
* 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

* 1.3550 – June 5th High
* 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
* 1.3365 – December 3rd High
* 1.3260 – June 13th Low

Read the rest of this entry »

Click here to read the full article.

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